Early voting numbers are starting to come in from all over the nation, and I am absolutely astounded by what we are witnessing so far.
In previous cycles, Democrats have dominated early in-person voting and vote-by-mail, and Republicans have dominated in-person voting on the day of the election. Experts had expected to see the same pattern manifest this time around, but in many of the most important states that simply is not happening. In fact, as you will see below, there are quite a few swing states where Republicans have actually cast more votes than Democrats have. Needless to say, this is very bad news for Kamala Harris.
Let’s start in Florida. When early in-person voting and vote-by-mail are combined, Republicans have a lead of more than 18,000 votes so far.
Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Florida in terms of early in-person voting and vote-by-mail combined as of Monday night.
At around 9:02 p.m. Eastern, Republicans led Democrats by 18,147 votes in terms of both early person voting and vote-by-mail combined.
When evaluating in-person early voting alone, Republicans lead by 93,210 votes, while Democrats edge out Republicans by 75,101 votes with vote-by-mail, specifically.
Regardless, at this point, Republicans have the overall edge.
This isn’t supposed to happen.
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During these early stages, Democrats are supposed to be casting more votes than Republicans virtually everywhere in the entire country.
So this is big news.
Even more importantly, Republicans are currently outvoting Democrats in the critical swing state of Georgia.
In Georgia, 49% of all early votes have come from Republicans, while 46% have come from Democrats.
We don’t know who these people are voting for, but these early numbers do give us an indication of which party is doing better at getting out the vote.
In Arizona, Republicans have built up quite a sizable lead.
In Arizona, registered Republican voters are slightly outperforming Democrats, 44 % to 35%.
And the numbers that we are getting out of Nevada are shocking pundits across the political spectrum.
BREAKING: Nevada Republicans NOW LEAD THE EARLY VOTE, with mail included. Absolutely unprecedented in a presidential year.
Republicans: 96,858
Democrats: 88,983
The Harris campaign is absolutely counting on Nevada. If they lose there, they are going to be in an enormous amount of trouble.
And could an upset be brewing in Virginia?
It is being reported that Republicans have cast more early in-person ballots in Virginia than Democrats have.
Republicans may be eclipsing Democrats in early in-person voting this year in Virginia, though Democrats appear to be outperforming Republicans in submitting mail-in ballots, according to data compiled by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.
Just two weeks out from the presidential election, Republicans are likely to have cast 46.5% of early in-person ballots, while Democrats likely account for 45.5%.
Of course Democrats have a big lead in mail-in ballots in Virginia, but Republicans will have a huge turnout on Nov. 5.
If Virginia ends up in Trump’s column, there is no way that Harris can win.
Overall, the early voting numbers are telling us a very clear story.
As Mark Halperin has explained, if current trends continue we could know who is going to win even before we get to Nov. 5.
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win the election … Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day … It’s extraordinarily important, and we got to track that day to day,” Halperin said. “That’s more important than the polls right now. It’s more important than almost anything because it’s giving us insight into a variety of factors that are accounting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.”
He is right. Early voting numbers are far more important than poll numbers.
But there is one new poll that I wanted to mention. It shows that Trump is actually leading Harris with Arab-American voters.
Former President Donald Trump is edging ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab-American voters, a poll released Tuesday shows.
Overall, the 2024 election will see a massive turnout among Arab-Americans, which the poll projects to reach 87%.
The Arab News/YouGov poll found 45 % of respondents said they are most likely to vote for the Republican nominee in 14 days time, while 43% would likely vote for Harris.
That is nuts! If Trump actually gets about half of all Arab-American votes, Kamala Harris is going to be in very deep trouble in the swing state of Michigan.
In fact, NBC News is reporting that the Harris campaign has become very nervous about potentially losing the state.
But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris’ campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.
The “Uncommitted” movement could play a huge role in who ultimately wins the state of Michigan.
Traditionally, Arab-American voters in Michigan have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats, but at this point they are “highly dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.”
The “Uncommitted” movement made up of young voters, progressives, Arab Americans and Muslims who are highly dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war could be Vice President Kamala Harris’s undoing in Michigan, Politico admitted Monday.
Politico Playbook deputy editor Zack Stanton authored an article asserting that college students in the state are breaking for Harris, but in the same breath noted the uncommitted movement could snuff out Harris’s White House hopes.
This is one of the big stories that we will want to watch on Nov. 5.
If Harris cannot win Michigan, her path to victory becomes very, very narrow. Right now, Harris should constantly be in Michigan, Pennsylvania and the other swing states. But instead, she took almost all of Tuesday off in order “to prepare for prerecorded softball interviews with NBC News and Telemundo”.
Meanwhile, Trump is working like a madman as he approaches the finish line. He is hitting one state after another in rapid fire fashion, and I don’t know how he is doing it.
Trump is literally running circles around a woman that is almost 20 years younger than he is. In such a close race, that could make all the difference.
But no matter who wins, I am expecting unprecedented chaos in the aftermath of this election.
Right now, both sides still believe that they are going to emerge victorious, but once we reach November 5th one side is going to have their hopes completely shattered.
Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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