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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its October employment report. Nonfarm payrolls was estimated at 261K (forecast 200K), while private payrolls was 233K (forecast 200K). The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (3.6% forecast). Annual average hourly earnings were in line with expectations at 4.7%. The participation rate (percentage of the working age population in the work force) fell for the third straight month to 62.2%.
The markets considered the October report as indicative of a strong labor market because of the larger than expected payrolls estimates. However, the headline numbers don’t tell the rest of the story. To dig deeper it’s important to understand that BLS uses two different surveys.
An establishment survey queries large corporations and is used for the BLS estimates of nonfarm and private payrolls. A household survey generates employment information and is used for unemployment and participation rates. Usually, employment estimates from the two surveys track together, but can diverge for short periods of time.
Since March, the two surveys have been far apart. In October, the establishment survey showed a payroll increase of 261K jobs, whereas the household survey showed a decrease of 328K. Some believe the household survey to be the most accurate.
Since March of this year, the establishment survey has documented an increase of 2.5 million jobs whereas the household survey only shows a 150K increase. Although the scale of the divergence is unusual, it has happened before. We saw the divergence in the Hillary vs. Trump election year and again in President Obama’s re-election contest.
Political bias (either from BLS or the corporations submitting data) in the establishment survey is suspected. Expect the establishment survey to be revised sharply lower toward the end of 2022.
To understand the economy, politics, geopolitical events, health advisories and general news, a wise consumer will always dig deeper. Don’t immediately accept headlines or news releases, dig deeper. Whether the source is mainstream media, alternative media, left stream media or right stream media, we should usually dig deeper.
Members of the kingdom have all that we need to go deeper in God. We have been given the scriptures, the Holy Spirit, the five-fold ministry, other believers and the church to provide guidance in these tumultuous times. We are not orphans. We are not left alone. We can be guided by our King. We can receive His guidance with full assurance because we know His voice.
These tumultuous times demand that we go deeper; deeper in our relationship with the Lord, deeper in our understanding of the word, deeper in our consecration, and a deep commitment to replace all the world’s ways with the ways of our King in our lives. We need to go deeper to:
- Walk in peace and love regardless of circumstances.
- Know His voice from the voice of any other influences.
- Correctly divide His Word.
- Always have faith in God.
- Rely on His protection and provision.
- Stand for His ways regardless of opposition.
- Discern truth from error regardless of the source.
The entire Bible documents the victory of faithful believers through thousands of years of history. It also documents the complete goodness, faithfulness, love, power and compassion of God through His infinite grace.
The opportunities for today’s kingdom citizens have few, if any, parallels. The world is hurting. The enemy is entrenched in many strongholds. But greater is He in us than He that is in the world.
Just like the Lord told Peter to go out into the deep for a catch, we need to go deeper, we need to go from glory to glory, we need to be transformed into His image. The future of current and future generations depends to a large extent on the body of Christ this day.
“Now when He had finished speaking, He said to Simon, ‘Put out into the deep water and let down your nets for a catch,’” (Luke 5:4, NASB 2020).
“But we all, with unveiled faces, looking as in a mirror at the glory of the Lord, are being transformed into the same image from glory to glory, just as from the Lord, the Spirit,” (2 Cor. 3:18, NASB 2020).
Let us determine to go deeper with God. The smallest of things can have a huge impact cumulatively. A correct word, said at the right time, can change the direction of a soul. Let us decide to enter deep waters.
“Whenever God thinks of you, He has your bests interests in mind; He has plans to take you further, deeper and higher than you ever dreamed. … Look for moments, even if it’s only 10 or 20 seconds, to steal away with Him. As you seek God, you will find yourself abiding in Him,” (“Hungry for God,” Margaret Feinberg).
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Dr. James Russell is a professor of economics at Oral Roberts University.
Bill Wiese 
Paul McGuire 
